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University of Mississippi

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“If President Trump loses in 2020, it won’t be because of Joe Biden”

Posted on: September 17th, 2020 by

On May 15, 2020, Instructional Associate Professor Robert Fleegler published the piece below in the “Made by History” section of the Washington Post.

“If President Trump loses in 2020, it won’t be because of Joe Biden”
By Robert Fleegler
May 15, 2020

Democrats are fretting as Joe Biden is unable to actively campaign because of the coronavirus, fearing it’s costing him valuable time that he needs to make the case against Donald Trump. But they need not worry. Only three incumbent presidents who have been elected in their own right — Herbert Hoover, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush — have lost their reelection bids in the past 90 years and history shows that they weren’t defeated because their opponents ran stellar campaigns, even if they went on to be influential presidents themselves. Rather external events and incumbent missteps turned the campaigns into referendums on the man in the office. The challenger needed to do relatively little to take advantage of what circumstance provided.

When Hoover was elected in 1928, he was one of the most respected figures in the entire country. He had organized food relief to war-torn Europe during World War I and been an able Secretary of Commerce for Presidents Warren Harding and Calvin Coolidge. Even a member of the opposing party, Woodrow Wilson’s assistant secretary of the Navy, Franklin Roosevelt, was moved to say in 1920 that Hoover “is certainly a wonder and I wish we could make him president of the United States. There could not be a better one.” Unfortunately for Hoover, the stock market crashed a mere seven months into his presidency and while it was certainly not his fault, he didn’t take aggressive action to rescue the economy as the Great Depression got underway. Eerily reminiscent of President Trump’s declarations that the pandemic was over just as it was beginning, Hoover repeatedly declared that prosperity was around the corner, showing himself to be out of touch with his desperate constituents. The country dubbed neighborhoods filled with unemployed people “Hoovervilles” in his honor.

While Roosevelt is today recalled as the godfather of 20th century activist government and one of America’s greatest presidents, when he ran in 1932 his campaign featured no exceptional program or clear ideology. Indeed, Roosevelt espoused contradictory themes, on one hand calling for bigger government and on another attacking Hoover for failing to balance the budget. “I regard reduction of federal spending as one of the most important issues in the campaign,” the candidate declared. Even his own advisers were left perplexed as to his governing policy. But it didn’t matter in the end, with 25 percent of the country out of work and little hope on the horizon, Roosevelt won easily in a landslide.

Jimmy Carter encountered similar problems and like his fellow engineer Hoover, did not handle them well. The unprecedented combination of high inflation and high unemployment that plagued the Me Decade — which became known as “stagflation”— intensified during Carter’s term of office in the late 1970s. Faced with these travails, Carter addressed the country via national television in July 1979 to talk not about these bread-and-butter concerns, but rather what he saw as the nation’s dangerous loss of faith in its major institutions. “The threat is nearly invisible in ordinary ways. It is a crisis of confidence,” he explained, “It is a crisis of confidence that strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will.” To some it seemed that he was blaming the American people for the nation’s difficulties and what became known as the “malaise” speech backfired on the former Georgia governor.

Things only got worse for Carter when Iranian radicals seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran a few months later in November, taking 52 Americans hostage. In the short term, the country rallied around the president — just as they did early in the pandemic to Trump — helping Carter push back a primary challenge from Ted Kennedy. But as the saga wore on, it crippled his presidency and by extension the whole country as it dominated the national discussion. The crisis, along with a failed attempt to rescue the hostages, made Carter seem like a weak and ineffectual leader.

While Ronald Reagan’s victory in 1980 is often remembered as an inevitable step in the country’s turn to the right, polls remained close as the candidates’ first and only debate approached a week before the election. Demonstrating the centrality of the incumbent’s performance to the outcome, Reagan famously asked those watching at home, “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” with most answering “no” to themselves — just as they would have if Roosevelt had posed the same question in 1932. Carter’s fate was then sealed when last-minute negotiations to bring the hostages home fell through, paving the way for the Reagan landslide.

George H.W. Bush’s defeat in 1992 seemed far less likely than Hoover’s or Carter’s as his presidency got off to a roaring start. The end of the Cold War in 1989 along with the triumph in the 1991 Persian Gulf War produced record approval ratings for Bush. Prominent Democratic challengers like Bill Bradley, Dick Gephardt and Al Gore decided to forgo a race against a seemingly invincible incumbent. Only far lesser-known candidates like former Sen. Paul Tsongas and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton were willing to enter the fray.

While Clinton is now remembered as a once-in-a-generation political talent, many held profound doubts about his electability in the spring of 1992. He had nearly destroyed his political career with a disastrous speech at the 1988 Democratic convention and many saw his alleged womanizing as well as his efforts to avoid the Vietnam-era draft as potentially fatal liabilities. “We have to recognize reality,” declared Pennsylvania Gov. Robert P. Casey Sr. in April 1992, “We are not producing a nominee who has a good crack at winning in November.” As late as June, Clinton was behind not only Bush, but also independent Texas billionaire Ross Perot — who in many ways was a progenitor of Trump — who led both career politicians at that point.

But in the end the fundamentals were almost enough on their own as the recession of 1990-91 and the jobless recovery that followed eroded Bush’s postwar popularity. Furthermore, he was seeking a fourth straight term for his party, a difficult challenge in any democracy and something that had not happened in the United States since Roosevelt and Harry Truman led the Democrats to five consecutive victories in the 1930s and 1940s. An anti-establishment mood took hold in the country, opening the door for a Washington outsider. But Perot first shockingly dropped out in July and then was not nearly as much of a threat when he surprisingly reentered the race in October. With Bush weighed down by the economy and the country fatigued after 12 years of Republican control of the White House, Clinton made “change” his mantra to win by a considerable margin in the electoral college, though he only won a plurality of the popular vote.

None of this means that covid-19 spells Trump’s defeat for sure in the fall. It just means that Biden’s chances to win will likely be determined by forces beyond his control rather than by how much he’s able to get out on the trail. And it is a reminder that in electoral politics, chance and circumstance often matter more than strategy or political skill.

“Centrism and moderation? No thanks.”

Posted on: February 27th, 2019 by

April Holm, associate professor of history at the University of Mississippi and the author of A Kingdom Divided: Evangelicals, Loyalty, and Sectionalism in the Civil War Era, is in the Washington Post. Click here to read the article!

 

Professor Douglass Sullivan-González’s New Book

Posted on: January 6th, 2016 by

The Black Christ of Esquipulas: Religion and Identity in Guatemala
University of Nebraska Press, 2016

ProductImageHandler.ashxOn the eastern border of Guatemala and Honduras, pilgrims and travelers flock to the Black Christ of Esquipulas, a large statue carved from wood depicting Christ on the cross. The Catholic shrine, built in the late sixteenth century, has become the focal point of admiration and adoration from New Mexico to Panama. Beyond being a site of popular devotion, however, the Black Christ of Esquipulas was also the scene of important debates about citizenship and identity in the Guatemalan nation throughout the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

In The Black Christ of Esquipulas, Douglass Sullivan-González, professor of history and dean of the Sally McDonnell Barksdale Honors College, explores the multifaceted appeal of this famous shrine, its mysterious changes in color over the centuries, and its deeper significance in the spiritual and political lives of Guatemalans. Reconstructed from letters buried within the restricted Catholic Church archive in Guatemala City, the debates surrounding the shrine reflect the shifting categories of race and ethnicity throughout the course of the country’s political trajectory. This “biography” of the Black Christ of Esquipulas serves as an alternative history of Guatemala and sheds light on some of the most salient themes in Guatemala’s social and political history: state formation, interethnic dynamics, and church-state tensions. Sullivan-González’s study provides a holistic understanding of the relevance of faith and ritual to the social and political history of this influential region.

London: A Social and Cultural History 1550-1750

Posted on: July 17th, 2012 by

By Robert O. Bucholz and Joseph P. Ward

Between 1550 and 1750 London became the greatest city in Europe and one of the most vibrant economic and cultural centres in the world. This book is a history of London during this crucial period of its rise to world-wide prominence, during which it dominated the economic, political, social and cultural life of the British Isles, as never before nor since. London incorporates the best recent work in urban history, contemporary accounts from Londoners and tourists, and fictional works featuring the city in order to trace London’s rise and explore its role as a harbinger of modernity, while examining how its citizens coped with those achievements. London covers the full range of life in London, from the splendid galleries of Whitehall to the damp and sooty alleyways of the East End. Readers will brave the dangers of plague and fire, witness the spectacles of the Lord Mayor’s Pageant and the hangings at Tyburn, and take refreshment in the city’s pleasure-gardens, coffee-houses and taverns.

 

Reviews:

“As an account of how and why London is London, however, this is the best book to come along in a generation.” -British Heritage Magazine

“Bucholz and Ward explore the rise of Europe’s preeminent entrepôt and metropolis in this engaging account of London and its people. Their superlative integration of the worlds of high culture and popular experience will enrich the study of English literature, society, and politics from the Reformation through the Enlightenment.” – Gary De Krey, Professor of British and European History, St. Olaf College

“There is a big story here – how, between 1550 and 1750, London became a great world capital – but there are also a thousand small and even more wonderful stories about the men and women who walked the city’s streets. Their experiences, their hopes, and their disappointments come vividly to life in this compulsively readable account.” – Lena Cowen Orlin, author of Locating Privacy in Tudor London

“This book is a must for anyone interested in London. It covers the period when London rose from being a quite important Northern European trading center to become the greatest international port in the world at the hub of not just the emerging British Empire but European and North American trade. The internationally connected city, at the center of trade, determined the character of the city it has become today, including the weight of its international finance and trade sectors, its globally diverse population and the worldwide influences on its heritage and contemporary culture.” – Ken Livingstone, first mayor of London

“A compass to navigate in the dark, an A to Z of London’s past, from beggars to kings, from Shakespeare to Dr. Johnson; Bucholz and Ward have created a compelling picture of the Great Wen in all its premodern glory.” – Tim Hitchcock, Professor of Eighteenth-Century History, University of Hertfordshire, Co-Director of Old Bailey Online

The Making of a Patriot: Benjamin Franklin at the Cockpit

Posted on: April 20th, 2012 by

by Sheila Skemp

On January 29, 1774, Benjamin Franklin was called to appear before the Privy Council—a select group of the King’s advisors—in an octagonal-shaped room in Whitehall Palace known as the Cockpit. Spurred by jeers and applause from the audience in the Cockpit, Solicitor General Alexander Wedderburn unleashed a withering tirade against Franklin. Though Franklin entered the room as a dutiful servant of the British crown, he left as a budding American Revolutionary. In The Making of a Patriot, renowned Franklin historian Sheila Skemp presents a insightful, lively narrative that goes beyond the traditional Franklin biography—and behind the common myths  —to demonstrate how Franklin’s ultimate decision to support the colonists was by no means a foregone conclusion. In fact, up until the Cockpit ordeal, he was steadfastly committed to achieving “an accommodation of our differences.” The Making of a Patriot also sheds light on the conspiratorial framework within which actors on both sides of the Atlantic moved toward revolution and it highlights how this event ultimately pitted Franklin against his son, suggesting that the Revolution was, in no small part, also a civil war.

Political Leadership, Nations and Charisma

Posted on: April 20th, 2012 by

Edited by Vivian Ibrahim and Margit Wunsch

This ground-breaking and innovative book examines the influence of charisma on power, authority and nationalism. The authors both apply and challenge Max Weber’s concept of ‘charisma’ and integrate it into a broader discussion of other theoretical models.

Using an interdisciplinary approach, leading international scholars draw on a diverse range of cases to analyse charisma in benign and malignant leaderships, as well as the relationship between the cult of the leader, the adulation of the masses and the extension of individual authority beyond sheer power. They discuss idiosyncratic authority and oratory, and they address how political, social and regional variations help explain concepts and policies which helped forge and reformulate nations, national identities and movements. The chapters on particular charismatic leaders cover Abraham Lincoln, Kemal Atatürk, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Gamal Nasser, Jörg Haider and Nelson Mandela.

REVIEWS

“This rich collection of essays, by leading academics from across the world, examines in critical depth Max Weber’s concept of charismatic leadership in the context of nations. Is charismatic leadership a result of how followers construct the idea of their leader or is it the intrinsic quality of charisma itself? The authors explore the personalities and purposes of leading figures across the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and question whether Weber’s concept needs revision, extension or rejection if applied globally.

Here is a collection of essays on the important theme of leadership, nations and charisma, which will be read with immense benefit by those interested in politics, sociology and history.”

– Lord Meghnad Desai, Emeritus Professor at London School of Economics (LSE)

“Margit Wunsch and Vivian Ibrahim have performed a stunning feat. Like an expose of a magician’s tricks, this book opens our eyes by dissecting the charisma of nationalist leaders to reveal its profane sources. Rigorous examinations of psychological phenomena in history and politics are rare, but this book delivers magnificently. The editors explore whether charisma is primarily about psychology, or is produced by social roles and political coercion. They ask if charisma is a cause or merely an effect of success. Authors consider whether charisma can survive in a pluralistic democratic context. They distinguish between situations where cunning leaders project charisma onto the masses and instances when the people bestow it upon their anointed leader. They go on to show how charisma can inhere in entire nations and institutions, not merely in individuals. They ask whether it can change history, and if so, whether it is always a malign force or can it serve democracy well, as Max Weber hoped. Might charisma survive death and be successfully institutionalised? What is the connection between charismatic individuals and heroes, icons or exemplars of national character? Does charisma exhibit a different quality in ‘disenchanted’ mass modernity? In non-western societies? Might Jesus, Muhammad, Joan of Arc and other historical figures exert charisma from beyond the grave, and how do latter-day charismatics appropriate their mantle? Is charisma inherent in charismatic figures or is it ‘made’ by image management, spin, dress and staging? This book offers a sustained analysis of these questions and much more. John Breuilly’s introduction weaves an impressive theoretical account through the embarrassment of riches provided by the book’s star-studded cast. From Hitler and Mussolini to Mandela and Gandhi, FDR and Lincoln to Haider, Napoleon to the Virgin Mary, this book will forever change the way we look at nationalist charisma.”

– Eric Kaufmann, Professor of Politics, Birkbeck College, University of London

 

A Laboratory of Liberty: The Transformation of Political Culture in Republican Switzerland, 1750-1848

Posted on: April 20th, 2012 by

A Laboratory of Liberty: The Transformation of Political Culture in Republican Switzerland, 1750-1848

By Marc H. Lerner

Looking at a series of Swiss political debates, this book offers a case study of a revolutionary transformation to a rights-based society and political culture. Based on a tradition of political innovation and experimentation, Swiss citizens recalibrated their understanding of liberty and republicanism from 1750 to 1848. The resulting hybrid political culture centered around republican ideas, changing understandings of liberty and self-rule. Drawing from the public political debates in three characteristic cantons, A Laboratory of Liberty places the Swiss transformation into aEuropean context. Current trends in Revolutionary studies focus on the revolution in its global context and this book demonstrates that the Swiss case enhances our understanding of the debates over the nature of liberty in the transatlantic world during the Age of Revolution.

Marc H. Lerner, Ph.D. (2003) in History, Columbia University, has been Assistant Professor of History at the University of Mississippi since 2005. His research interests are focused on revolutionary Europe in comparative perspective, republicanism, democracy and the transition to political modernity.

The West African Slave Plantation

Posted on: April 18th, 2012 by

West African Slave Plantation
By Mohammed Bashir Salau

The literature on Atlantic slavery is rich with accounts of plantation complexes in the Americas, but to date none have been produced for West Africa. In this valuable study, The West African Slave Plantation: A Case Study, Mohammed Bashir Salau helps to address this lacunae by looking at the plantation operations at Fanisau in Hausaland, and in the process provides an innovative look at one piece of the historically significant Sokoto Caliphate. The case study calls into question the assumption that servile institutions in West Africa were “serf villages” and not “slave plantations,” and argues that manumission was less common, at least in the Caliphate, than generally believed. Also, it provides evidence on the key role of the emir of Kano (Abbas) and various merchants in the transition to groundnut cultivation and the significant use of slave labor by large estate holders in the early twentieth century.
 
REVIEWS


“Salau’s study of a plantation complex in the Sokoto caliphate fills an important gap in the global studies of slavery and plantation systems. It is an exciting exploration into a system of agricultural production, the plantation, that has not been given sufficient consideration in African history; nor have we had sufficient African case studies to allow useful comparative studies with New World plantations. It uses a rich trove of oral histories, collected from among people who were either themselves slaves or who supervised slaves, to document the ways that African plantations were managed and slaves controlled and resisted. This is a richly textured study that is a major contribution to our understanding of plantations as economic and social systems and the agency of slaves who, in this case, were drawn into the cash crop economy of a West African colony.”
— Carolyn Brown, Professor, Department of History, Rutgers University

“This book is an important contribution to knowledge. By and large, Africanists do not have the data to write the kind of study which is available for village and plantation studies in the West Indies or the United States. Salau has, however, an exceptional source consisting of a large fund of oral interviews and a significant number of written sources. It makes it possible for him to provide a detailed account of how a rural plantation in Hausaland operated. I do not know of any other study which details the daily life of the slave economy in Africa and makes clear how the court interfaced with the rural economy. Such village studies are crucial for any kind of comparative analysis, and though there are other village studies, none give such an accurate picture of life on a slave plantation.”
—Martin Klein, Professor Emeritus, Department of History, University of Toronto


Author Mohammed Bashir Salau is Assistant Professor of History at the University of Mississippi. Salau received his Ph.D. in African Diaspora history at York University, Canada, in 2005. He is the author of articles published in Journal of African HistoryAfrican Economic History and several edited volumes. He is now working on a biography that focuses on Dorugu Kwage Adam, a Hausa man in Central Sudan who was enslaved during the early years of his life in the mid-nineteenth century, and on a book tentatively entitled Plantation Slavery in the Central Sudan on comparative slavery.